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San Francisco Real Estate Market Trends (Q1 2026)
San Francisco's housing market has made a strong comeback in early 2026, fueled by the AI sector boom and a critically low inventory. The median sale price for single-family homes sits at $1,653,325, while condos average $1,020,000, with the citywide median around $1,300,000. Total homes for sale have dipped below 500 citywide, and single-family supply has fallen nearly 38% year-over-year, keeping prices elevated despite a slight decline in overall sales volume.
San Francisco's single-family home segment is among the most competitive in the country right now. Homes are going under contract in just 13 days on average, with roughly 86% selling above list price — often at premiums of 15% or more. In high-demand neighborhoods like Pacific Heights and the Richmond, hot listings can go pending in as little as 12 days and sell up to 17% over asking. The condo market moves at a much slower pace, averaging 65 days on market with a sale-to-list ratio of 97.7%, making it the more accessible entry point for buyers.
The biggest story driving this market is AI-sector wealth. High-earning tech workers flush with stock-based compensation are aggressively targeting single-family homes, often with the financial firepower to waive contingencies and bid well above asking. Mortgage rates easing into the low 6% range have done little to broaden affordability — this remains a market dominated by high-net-worth buyers. For everyone else, the combination of scarce inventory and intense competition leaves very little room for deliberation.
For detailed, up-to-date information on buying a house in San Francisco, including legal considerations and market trends, you can talk to us.
Waiting for a significant price drop in San Francisco is historically a losing game. As of early 2026, single-family home prices are rising (up ~12% year-over-year) due to the AI-driven wealth boom and a severe inventory shortage. With mortgage rates stabilizing in the low 6% range, competition is actually increasing. Most experts suggest that if you find a home you love and can afford the payment, "time in the market" beats "timing the market" in this city.
There is a massive "inventory split" in SF right now. Single-family homes are in critically low supply (less than 1.5 months of inventory), making them a strong seller’s market. Condos, particularly in high-rise areas like SoMa or South Beach, have more inventory and higher HOA fees, which keeps them closer to a balanced market. If you want a deal or more negotiating power, the condo market is your best bet.
In neighborhoods like the Sunset, Richmond, or Noe Valley, the "List Price" is often a marketing tool rather than a value estimate.
Single-Family Homes: Expect to pay 10% to 15% over list price on average.
Condos: Many sell for right at or even slightly below (98-99%) the list price. Always look at "comparable sales" (comps) from the last 60 days rather than the asking price to determine your offer.
San Francisco has some of the highest transfer taxes in the country, often paid by the seller but factored into the deal:
Under $5M: Roughly 0.75% to 0.9% of the price.
$5M to $10M: 2.25%.
$10M to $25M: 5.5%.
Over $25M: 6.0%. These "transfer taxes" are a one-time fee during the sale, separate from your annual property taxes.
Your base property tax rate for 2025-2026 is approximately 1.18% of the assessed value. Thanks to California’s Proposition 13, your assessed value can only increase by a maximum of 2% per year, regardless of how much the home's market value grows. This is a huge benefit for long-term owners but means a new buyer will likely pay significantly more in taxes than the neighbor who bought 20 years ago.
While "Cash is King"—especially in the $4M+ luxury segment—it isn't mandatory. However, to compete with cash, financed buyers are often forced to waive contingencies (appraisal, inspection, and loan). In 2026, many buyers are using "cross-collateralization" or "delayed financing" to make their offers look as strong as cash while still utilizing a mortgage.
Thinking of calling San Francisco your home? Or have questions about the diverse and dynamic real estate market in the City by the Bay? Whether you're captivated by the charm of Victorian houses, the allure of modern downtown condos, or the tranquility of a beachfront property, we're here to help you navigate your journey to homeownership in this iconic city.
Get assistance in determining current property value, crafting a competitive offer, writing and negotiating a contract, and much more. Contact us today.
